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Madden09 Player Evals

Madden09 Evals
Untitled

Madden09 XBox360 Player Evaluation Software (Excel Spreadsheet)

click here to download "Madden09 XBox360 Player Evaluations Spreadsheet" (zip version of MS ExcelXP file: 280KB)

Hope this helps:
Like many of you, I do a lot of scouting/drafting. I found that I needed a better way of comparing the draftees especially as they compare with my current players and across similar positions (e.g., Tackle vs Center).
To this end, I started doing a lot of statistical analysis of the scouting reports and what they imply with respect to the player's eventual performance metrics. Now before any "Madden Purists" get upset, realize that this does not involve some devious tapping into the player's actual numbers or "time travel", as some people espouse (e.g., simming forward to next year, logging the draftees actual attribute values, and then reloading the previous year). No, this is just:
  1. Converting scouting report (Combine) data to estimated attribute values, e.g., convert 40-yd time to SPD
  2. determination of which attributes effect a position's OVR, and by how much
  3. estimation of what a player's OVR would be in another position
  4. how to use the radar chart data
  5. etc.
This helps answer some basic questions that every head coach might ask (and, that every decent head coach would know how to answer), for example,
  • How does a draftee's 40-yd time of 4.42 compare to my own 2nd string HB's SPD of 85?
  • How would my LT perform at RG?
  • I need a decent punter, but which punter would also be a decent 3rd string QB.
  • I want the best all-purpose back-up offensive lineman, that is, one that is decent in all three positions (T, G, C), though perhaps not the best in any one of them.
  • I need a good Kicker, but all the top Kickers are gone, how good would these Punters be as Kickers?
  • I need a top RG, there is an excellent LT available, how good a RG would he be?

These questions, and a hundred like them, are fundamental to making the best draft selection (or player trade) for your team's overall current and long-term success strategy.

To help answer these types of questions, and since I couldn't find this information anywhere else, I have been working on a predictive spreadsheet one that only uses the data that I honestly have available. This has taken well over 500 hours of data correlation and statistical analysis.

Instructions:
  1. download the spreadsheet (it is a zipped version of a Microsoft Excel XP ('02) file).
  2. Choose the tab corresponding to the position of interest
  3. Enter the data requested in the left side of the sheet. All of this data is either basic personal info (e.g., name, position, expected draft round), is optional (Misc, Age), or can be obtained directly from the scouting reports (Combine data, Radar chart data, etc.).
  4. The attributes that can be estimated from this input are automatically displayed on the right side of the sheet.
  5. You can sort the data by selecting the input cells (not the entire rows).
Special Notes:
  1. I have added many notes and feedback in the comment windows -- simply hover your mouse over a cell to see its comment -- especially useful for the table headings.
  2. I have found Madden'09 for the Xbox360 makes no distinction between LT & RT, LG & RG, LE & RE, and LOLB & ROLB with respect to attribute values.
  3. You can enter existing NFL Player data, to make it easier to do direction comparisons and to more easily estimate player's rating in other positions, just set their "draft round" to "NFL".
  4. These are only estimates. The scouting report data, like Combine data, is not perfect some players have bad days and others may have "career best" days. This leads to a bit of imprecision, but that is why they are only estimates. Similarly, while the radar chart presents perfect data, it is very difficult to measure precisely again leading to imprecision. I provide the statistical accuracy measurements that I have experienced for the scouting data in cell comment windows. In almost all cases, the predictions are within 2 points of the actual value, and in most cases they are within 1 point.
  5. The scouting reports' radar charts sometimes present useless data (not a problem), and sometimes fail to provide critical information, e.g., PBK for a T (definitely a problem). If the missing data is required for the OVR, then it is estimated from the draftee's expected draft round number. It would be possible to estimate it from the draftee's "potential" bar, but then that introduces yet anther estimation problem, i.e., how accurate you can physically measure that bar.
  6. I found it useful to add an "Age" column for my NFL players (to know which positions to be drafting for) and a Misc column (which I use mostly for sorting criteria, e.g., 1st vs 2nd string, on my team vs. players I may want to trade for, etc. The Misc column allows me to both track additional information and to sort on it.
  7. I have left some sample data in the tables, simply replace the input values with your own.
I am very interested in getting some constructive criticisms, and will try to incorporate appropriate suggestions into the next "release".
I am also very interested in your experiences with the accuracy of the projections some variation is to expected, and although I used standard statistical methods to verify the applicability of the results, it is always possible that my data samples were just not representative of the true norm.

DISCLAIMER: The attached spreadsheet is based entirely on my experience with Madden'09 for the Xbox360. Due to the nature of the game, your results may vary. This spreadsheet is provided free of charge and is for entertainment purposes only I make no other claims as to its accuracy or applicability. This software is not available for sale and is not authorized for sale of any kind by anyone. I am not responsible for any losses as a result of your use of this software e.g., you lose a bet or a football game as a result of this program's "advice". Furthermore, this software involved absolutely no "reverse engineering" of the Madden football game. There was no attempt to determine the underlying software employed -- it is entirely a statistical analysis of my experience with that software's output.

click here to download "Madden09 XBox360 Player Evaluations Spreadsheet" (zip version of MS ExcelXP file: 280KB)  
 
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